The 10-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.995% heading into today's Fed decision.

It's up 84 basis points this year, on track for its biggest yearly rise since 2022.

That one number touches almost everything: mortgage rates, car loans, and how much investors are willing to pay for stocks. The 2-year yield is around 4.737% and the 30-year about 5.309%, per CNBC. Fed funds futures price roughly a 93% chance the Fed holds its 3.75% to 4% range today, according to CME's FedWatch tool, but better than 80% odds of a hike in December. With September CPI running at 3.7% a year, traders care less about today's decision and more about what Chair Kevin Warsh says about the next one.

Stocks went into the meeting on a good note. On Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq gained 1.18% to 26,477.81 and the Dow edged up 0.03% to 52,377.57. Tech and chip stocks led again, while energy was the weakest sector as crude prices eased.

The decision lands at 2 p.m. Eastern (3 a.m. Thursday here in Korea), and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close the same day. That's a lot of news in one window.

My Fed-day checklist:

1. Know what's already priced in. A "hold" that everyone expects can still move markets if the outlook changes.
2. The first swing after the statement is often reversed during the press conference. Don't trade the first headline.
3. Check whether anything you own reports earnings the same day. Two catalysts at once means bigger moves.
4. If you use stops, place them before the announcement, not while prices are jumping.

That's why TradeShield keeps your risk limits front and center, so a big headline doesn't make your decisions for you.

Stay sharp out there.

— Spidah, Founder & CEO

Market awareness, not financial advice. Trading involves risk.