**Friday's "good bad news," and why I'm still watching

By John Murray 2026-10-04

**Friday's "good bad news," and why I'm still watching the boring stuff** Friday was one of those days that makes traders feel clever until Monday morning. September payrolls came in at just 29,000 jobs, way under the ~90–100K people were looking for, and unemployment ticked to 4.2%. Markets did the classic flip: soft jobs = less chance of another Fed hike, so stocks rallied. S&P roughly +0.7%, Nasdaq about +1.2%, Dow around +0.5%. Futures put October hike odds near 23%. Here's the part that doesn't fit the victory lap: the 10-year yield had just touched about 5.34% Thursday, highest since 2002, and it didn't exactly collapse. Oil cooled some (WTI around $91 after reserve-release talk), but long rates are still the quiet boss of the room. My take, not a trade: celebrate the bounce if you want. Just don't confuse "bad data, good for stocks today" with a free pass on risk. Size like you might be wrong. Know your exit before the next headline. Paper the plan if you're unsure. I'm building TradeShield so the boring stuff (risk checks, paper trading, a crew that won't hype you into oblivion) is always one click away. Sunday's for rest, not revenge trading. Spidah, Founder & CEO Not financial advice.